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As global leaders gather in the Brazilian Amazon for Cop30, it is crucial to review our collective progress in lowering worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases.

Despite 30 years of United Nations climate conferences, nearly 50% of the CO2 built up in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution has been emitted since 1990. Incidentally, 1990 was the release of the First Assessment Report by the IPCC, which confirmed the threat of human-caused global warming. As scientists work on the upcoming IPCC report, they do so knowing that scientific findings remains eclipsed by political influences. Despite well-intentioned efforts, the world is still dangerously off track to prevent catastrophic climate change.

Unprecedented CO₂ Levels and Fossil Fuel Dependency

Latest figures indicate that CO₂ concentrations reached a new peak of 423.9 parts per million in the year 2024, with the increase rate from 2023 to 2024 jumping by the biggest annual rise since modern measurements began in 1957. Based on the international carbon monitoring initiative, ninety percent of worldwide carbon dioxide output in 2024 originated from burning fossil fuels, while the remaining 10% was due to alterations in land use such as forest clearance and forest fires.

Although the rise in fossil CO₂ emissions in 2024 was driven by higher use of gas and oil—representing more than 50% of global emissions—the use of coal also attained a record high, constituting forty-one percent. Despite Cop28’s global stocktake calling for nations to transition away from carbon fuels, global strategies still intend to extract over twice the amount of hydrocarbons in 2030 than aligns with limiting global warming to 1.5C, with continued extraction of natural gas rationalized as a less polluting bridge fuel.

The Illusion of Nature-Based Solutions

Instead of concentrating on economic incentives to speed up the elimination of fossil fuels, climate policies are overly dependent on feel-good nature positive approaches that aim to cancel out CO2 output by afforestation rather than reducing industrial emissions. Although conserving, enlarging, and rehabilitating ecological absorbers like forests and wetlands is beneficial in itself, studies has demonstrated that there is insufficient territory to reach the global goal of net zero emissions using nature-based solutions alone.

Roughly one billion hectares—a territory bigger than the USA—is required to fulfill carbon neutrality commitments. Over 40% of this land would need to be converted from current applications like agriculture to carbon capture initiatives by 2060 at an never-before-seen pace.

Although this regenerative utopia could be achieved, woodlands take time to mature and are susceptible to fires, so they should not be viewed as a fast or lasting carbon storage solution, particularly in a rapidly shifting climate. As extreme heat and aridity affect more of the planet, these sincere attempts could literally go up in smoke.

The Weakening of Planetary Absorbers

Scientific evidence tells us that about 50% of the total CO₂ emitted annually remains in the atmosphere, while the rest is taken up by seas and terrestrial systems. As the planet warms, these environmental absorbers are becoming less effective at capturing CO₂, which means that additional CO2 accumulates in the air, intensifying global warming. Shifting the reduction responsibility onto the agricultural and forest sectors effectively excuses the fossil fuel industry from the pressure to reduce emissions in the near future.

The Carbon Debt and Coming Populations

Reaching carbon neutrality by mid-century demands carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which currently relies almost exclusively on terrestrial methods to absorb excess carbon from the atmosphere. Emitting companies can easily purchase offsets to counterbalance their discharges and proceed with normal operations. At the same time, the energy imbalance caused by the combustion of hydrocarbons continues to further destabilise the global climate system. In effect, we are adding more carbon debt to our global account, leaving future generations with an unpayable liability.

To limit the magnitude and duration of overshoot the global warming targets, the planet ultimately needs to go well beyond the neutralising effect of carbon neutrality and begin to remove cumulative historical emissions to reach a carbon-negative state.

The Political Distortion of Carbon Neutrality

Based on the most recent data from the Global Carbon Project, plant-based carbon removal is currently capturing the equivalent of about 5% of yearly CO2 from fuels, while engineered carbon extraction accounts for only about one-millionth of the carbon released from fossil fuels. More generous sector projections place it at around zero point one percent of total global emissions. Without meaning to be controversial, the policy twisting of net zero is a deceptive gap that takes focus away from the scientific imperative to eradicate the primary cause of our overheating planet—fossil fuels.

The Urgent Need for Concrete Action

While this scientific reality should dominate discussions at Cop30, history indicates that polite incrementalism and political kowtowing will win out. Vague statements of long-term goals will continue to postpone the urgent need for concrete immediate action. Until policymakers are brave enough to implement carbon pricing to terminate the age of hydrocarbons, we are adding increasing amounts of CO2 to the air, worsening the environmental disaster currently happening across the globe.

The challenge we confront is simple: take real action to the evidence-based situation of our predicament or endure the consequences of this deep ethical lapse for centuries to come.